Sunday, June 17, 2018

Philadelphia 76ers Trying to Acquire Top-5 Pick

Former Cleveland Cavaliers' general manager David Griffin recently appeared on Sirius XM NBA Radio's show and dropped this draft news pertaining to Philadelphia:
“Philly is very much looking to move up to get somebody they think will go in the top 5."
Griffin has been linked to Philadelphia's open GM position. The position has been open after burner accounts were linked to the team's president of basketball operations, Bryan Colangelo. Colangelo denied it, but the phone numbers were linked to his wife's phone. Brett Brown has been serving as interim GM in addition to maintaining his head coaching duties. This stands to be a credible source given that Griffin is still a candidate to be hired by the organization.

WHO IS THE TARGET? 

The Sixers have an NBA-high 6 draft picks heading into the draft. Picks #10, #26, #38, #39, #56, and #60.

Here are the 6 players most projected to be selected in the top-5:

Deandre Ayton

  • The center out of Arizona is likely to be the #1 pick after averaging 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds while leading the Wildcats to the Pac-12 title. Legitimate questions about his defense, but he looks like he will be a star on the other end of the court.
  • NOT a Philadelphia target with Joel Embiid locked in at the 5. Phoenix is not looking to deal the #1 pick and sounds committed to drafting Ayton.


Luka Doncic

  • The 6'6" European sensation has been heralded as good enough to go #1 over the past few months, but concerns about his athleticism and inability to workout for teams (currently participating in the ACB playoffs) have dropped his stock. Likely still a top 5 pick.
  • POSSIBLY the target. The SF with a nice shot, solid handle, and excellent court vision could be the next European NBA star and could be a great fit next to Simmons and Embiid.


Jaren Jackson Jr.

  • The 6'11" big man out of Michigan State has been projected to be a PF/C in the NBA. Jackson did not put up the same flashy stats that Ayton and Bagley produced in college, but the big man has immense potential as a floor-spacing big man with outstanding defensive attributes. Averaging just 21.8 minutes, Jackson averaged 10.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 3.2 fouls per game. These numbers may look modest but averaging 3.0 blocks, 51.3% from the field, 39.6% from beyond the arc, and 79.7% from the free throw line show that Jackson is an elite shot blocker with a sweet shooting stroke.
  • POSSIBLY the target. Jackson would space the floor on offense for Embiid to work down low, just like Saric and Ilyasova did this past season. On defense, Jackson and Embiid would terrify opponents that attacked the paint.


Marvin Bagley III

  • Bagley is another prospect that has a legitimate argument for going #1 overall. The 6'11" PF/C out of Duke, put up 21.0 points and 11.1 rebounds as a star freshman. Shooting a stellar 61.4% from the field and 39.7% from 3, Bagley was dominant on the offensive end but his .9 blocks disappointed on the defensive end for someone who was so physically dominant.
  • UNLIKELY he is the target. Bagley will likely be a 15-20ppg guy immediately, but he may be best suited at C in the modern NBA. Embiid is Philly's franchise C and the overlap in their games may not mesh as well as some of the other prospects.


Mo Bamba

  • Bamba made headlines with his NBA combine record 7'10" wingspan. The 7'1 PF/C didn't stop impressing there, as he reportedly wowed the Chicago Bulls with a 3/4 court sprint faster than NBA All-Star guards. His time was faster than Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Kemba Walker, James Harden, Dwayne Wade, and Victor Oladipo posted in their pre-draft workouts. The 10.9 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per game predict a defensive menace in the NBA, but expect the hardworking big man to continue to improve the range on his jumper and produce near his 12.9 points per game in his rookie year. Bamba has the physical gifts to be more dominant than Rudy Gobert on defense, and potentially be a #1 or #2 option on offense. A good guy with no character issues and another Texas product destined to be a star in the league.
  • UNLIKELY to be the target. Bamba has as much upside as anyone in this draft, but he doesn't seem to be a good fit next to Embiid. Bamba and Embiid both excel as centers. Bamba could do much better than Bagley could guarding power forwards on the defensive end, but lacks the shooting yet to play next to Embiid on offense.


Michael Porter Jr.

  • Porter left high school looking like a future #1 pick. His collegiate career at Missouri didn't last long though, as he suffered a major back injury (L3-L4 microdiscectomy) in the first 2 minutes of his first game. He recovered to play 2 final games with Missouri, but lacked the explosiveness that made him the dominant player he was in high school. The 6'10" former McDonald's All-American was a dominant point-forward in high school and projected to go head to head with NBA superstar wings. A recent hip injury (muscle spasms potentially related to back injury) and concerns about the recovery are still leaving teams wary of drafting Porter.
  • SB Nation has this phenomenal piece on MPJ's injury. Of note:
  • "Using PER as a baseline, the study found that a patient won’t return to his typical level of play until his second season following surgery."
  • POSSIBLY the target. Because Porter's injury kept him sidelined for most of the NCAA season, there is naturally a lot of concern about the severity of the injury. He had herniated discs but the procedure was short and never left him bed-ridden from the day it was performed. To some extent, it has been blown out of proportions, but it is hard to know what other issues could stem from the back injury. If he regains his form, he could be the best player in the draft and a dominant combo forward. Philadelphia didn't back away from taking Embiid after his injuries, so they may view MPJ as a risk worth taking. He could start immediately at the 3 or 4 for a team looking to make the next step and be a crucial go-to scorer.


There seems to be a distinct drop-off in prospects after these 6 players, with Trae Young, Wendall Carter Jr., Mikal Bridges, Collin Sexton, and Kevin Knox being some of the prospects seen outside the top-6 in most NBA mock drafts.

The most likely Philadephia target is Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr., or Michael Porter Jr.

Philadephia has some negotiating to do with the Sacramento Kings, Atlanta Hawks, Memphis Grizzlies, or Dallas Mavericks to acquire a top-5 pick by Thursday.

Fortunately, Memphis appears to be open for business:



The NBA draft starts at 7pm ET on Thursday, June 21.
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Thursday, June 14, 2018

Anthony Davis To The Golden State Warriors?

Adding an MVP in their prime to a 73-win team can really make you think anything is possible.


Somehow, the Warriors remain in the Anthony Davis sweepstakes after sweeping the Cleveland Cavaliers in the finals.

The obvious question that Golden State fans, Joe Lacob, and NBA fans hoping for more competitive balance are asking:

Can the Golden State Warriors really add Anthony Davis to a core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green?

In the next 2 years? That's nearly impossible.

In 2 years they would have to let Draymond Green and/or Klay Thompson walk to have enough salary cap to offer Davis near a maximum contract.

As far as trading for him now?

Golden State is a luxury tax team and so their incoming trade salaries can be up to 125% of the outgoing salary, plus $100,000 (per cbafaq.com). The 2017-18 salaries are the numbers used through June transactions; July is the start of the next NBA season and starts factoring in the 2018-19 salaries.

Without factoring the unlikely possibility of Golden State signing-and-trading one of their end of the bench guys to a nearly mid-level deal to facilitate the trade, the Warriors would need to deal at least Andre Igoudala and Shaun Livingston to have enough outgoing salary.

Shaun Livingston and Andre Igoudala are not getting you Anthony Davis.

But, wait! Do the Warriors have young players or draft picks to sweeten the deal?

YOUNG PLAYERS

Unfortunately for Oakland, the only young players are Jordan Bell, Patrick McCaw, and Kevin Looney.

Looney will be a free agent and likely gone because the Warriors can only offer the unrestricted free agent a starting salary of $2.2 million after turning down his team option.

McCaw has shown glimpses but has only averaged 4.0 points per game and does not have much trade value.

Bell had a good season and would be the only legitimate young player to send out in a deal for Davis.

PICKS

With Golden State so good, there is not substantial value of a first-round pick that is destined to be the 28-30th pick.

The Ted Stepien rule prohibits trading future 1st round picks in consecutive years if there is any chance the team will be left without a pick for 2 consecutive years in the future. So they could trade 2018, 2020, and 2022 (and add up to 2024) before the draft or make the pick and then trade the draft rights and 2019, 2021, and 2023 (also could add 2025).

The earliest they can currently include a 2nd round pick is 2021. With those likely being between the 58-60th pick, they have little trade value.

BEST NON-STAR DEAL

The best that the Warriors could offer would likely be Andre Igoudala, Shaun Livingston, Jordan Bell, select 2018 draft pick for Pelicans, unprotected 2019 1st round pick, 2021 unprotected 1st round pick, unprotected 2023 1st round pick, and unprotected 2025 1st round pick.

Two aging veterans, a young player on an expiring contract, and several late first round and second round picks are still not going to be good enough for a 25 year-old MVP candidate who could directly be traded for the #1 pick in the draft.



However, if you watch the above clip from CBS Sports, you can see why a deal around Draymond Green or Klay Thompson could be a legitimate option.

After winning 3 rings, is there any chance that 2 All-Stars will sacrifice $80 million each for early extensions after watching Steph Curry and Kevin Durant get max deals?

Klay Thompson and Draymond Green will have their last shot at what could be a maximum contract- they are not going to leave money on the table.

Draymond Green has already made this public, as Chris Haynes of ESPN recently reported:
According to league sources, Green will turn the extension down when it's offered. That's because if he earns MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or All-NBA Team honors next season, he will be eligible for a super-max contract of five years, $226 million.
No one anticipated Green being in such a lucrative position coming out of Michigan State. But if he achieves one of those incentives, will the Warriors be willing to pay a 30-year-old (in March 2020) Green that much? Or would Lacob let him walk or try to trade him if Bell shows he's capable of filling Green's role?
Sources say Green is not expected to take a pay cut on the next go-around. But the team's glue guy and architect said he isn't worried about his next contract negotiation.

That is where it gets tricky for Golden State. The NBA has no hard cap on spending, but the financial burden of keeping a team above the luxury tax makes it an incredibly difficult pill to swallow, even for a championship team.

Will Joe Lacob be willing to pay his 4 stars each well over $30 million/yr? The team would still have to pay for a minimum of 8 more roster holds. Financially, it merits looking into other avenues to improve the team and save money. The financial burden would be equivalent to paying for 2-3 teams salaries.

STILL POSSIBLE?

For all that Draymond Green and Klay Thompson bring to the team, neither are on par with the younger and significantly more talented Anthony Davis.

If there is going to be a deal for Anthony Davis, then Green and/or Thompson will be involved.

The financial burdens will still exist for the Warriors if they trade only 1 of the players for Anthony Davis. The team would be even better if they could manage to trade Green or Thompson, Igoudala, and first round picks. However, that offer may be bested by Danny Ainge in Boston(Kyrie Irving, young assets, and picks) or other teams willing to gut their roster for the franchise building block.

That is why they should seriously consider trading both of them for Anthony Davis.

PULL THE TRIGGER

"Davis would have to want out, and then the Warriors would have to meet New Orleans' trade price," Kawakami explained. "That would almost certainly have to include either Klay Thompson or Draymond Green or potentially both."

A package of Draymond Green and Klay Thompson would be the absolute best offer that the New Orleans Pelicans could hope for.

This deal would lock in a bright future for a franchise that has struggled to maintain success. Pairing Green and Thompson with All-Defensive 1st team Jrue Holiday would be a match made in heaven and an opportunity for them to build their own "superteam" outside of California. They can grow as players outside of the shadow of Curry and Durant and build their own legacy. Add in Nikola Mirotic and potentially bring back Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins.

A starting 5 of Rondo, Holiday, Thompson, Green, and Cousins would be a championship contender. Mirotic, Solomon Hill, Cheick Diallo, Darius Miller, and an MLE player would round out the bench.

Golden State would have 3 of the best 5 players in the NBA on one team in their prime. Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Anthony Davis can all have max contracts and continue to carry a team for the next 5 years until Durant mulls retirement. Over the next few years they can continue to add talent and Davis can contribute for the next decade to the dynasty, continuing for years after Curry and Durant retire. New Orleans would send E'Twaun Moore to start at SG and a 1st round pick to give the Warriors another piece to flip in trades.

Warriors start Curry, Moore, Igoudala, Durant, and Davis. Bell, McCaw, Livingston, and other veterans fill out the bench.

THE PACKAGE

GSW: Draymond Green, Klay Thompson

NOP: Anthony Davis, E'Twaun Moore, 2019 unprotected 1st round pick

 VERDICT

It is highly unlikely that the Warriors would trade 2 important parts of their championship team; trading for Anthony Davis would give the Warriors a younger future MVP building block, clear up financial concerns of Thompson and Durant, and bring together the best trio in the history of the NBA.



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Friday, February 23, 2018

Jimmy Butler Injures Knee; Blame Thibs?

After apparently not playing in the All-Star game for rest, Minnesota Timberwolves' star Jimmy Butler went down with what looked to be a non-contact, right knee injury.

Butler had been bumped by Nene before going down, but the injury appeared to be unrelated to that.



This is a tough break for Minnesota, who has had their best season since 2003-04.

Jimmy Butler was averaging 22.4 points, 5.0 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game at 47.6% from field, 35.8% from 3, and 86.5% free throw shooting.

Butler was acquired over the offseason from Chicago, where he previously thrived under coach Tom Thibodeau. The star SG/SF has made a tremendous impact for Minnesota, who currently sit at 4th in the Western Conference at 36-26. 

With the Western Conference a tight race from the 3rd to 9th seed, the Timberwolves could quickly drop down the standings. Just 3 games separates the 3rd place Spurs and 9th place Clippers, and Minnesota could see themselves drop below the 4th seed and lose playoff homecourt advantage- or potentially even drop out of the playoffs. 

It didn't take long for fans and the media to turn on coach Tom Thibodeau.




Thibodeau has been criticized for playing his starters extended minutes, with Jimmy Butler leading the NBA in minutes per game at 37.3.

Derrick Rose, Zach Lavine, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and now Jimmy Butler, have had major injuries while playing heavy minutes under coach Tom Thibodeau.




While there is some hope about severity; Kristaps Porzingis had similar hopes before being diagnosed with his ACL injury as well.

Butler suffered the knee injury after just 25 minutes of play, in the first game back in over a week.

UPDATE:




If Butler undergoes surgery Monday, he could be available 4 weeks later on March 26 vs Memphis.

Butler would miss 12 games from a 4 week recovery, returning for the final 8 games.

If Butler has to miss 6 weeks, he would return April 9th vs Memphis. That would be the next to last game for Minnesota. Butler would miss 18 games in that case.

In a tough Western Conference, 12 games could be enough for Minnesota to slide out of the playoffs. 18 games or more could be a death blow to the franchise's hopes of competing in the playoffs.
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